It seems that President Obama once again is content to be completely irrelevant in this year’s budget negotiations, what with his plan to hose the rich to the tune of $1.5 trillion.  It’ll likely be the second year running where Obama submits a budget that doesn’t get adopted. Last year Republicans preferred their own version of a budget, written by Paul Ryan, whilst the Senate failed to move the resolution to the floor (and hasn’t for the past two years as it is).

It isn’t for lack of trying. Obama, to his credit, is actually doing his job. He’s submitted the budget for the last four years, so it was up to Congress to pass it. And while it’s understandable, and commendable, that Republicans preferred something different last year, the fact that Obama couldn’t get his own team on board is telling. With such a big tax hike, I fail to see why either chamber will be any more in favor of the 2013 budget. It’s an election year, after all, and as political as his budget is (as Republicans put it), so too will be why it’s not accepted.

Consider the circumstances Democrats find themselves in.  According to Real Clear Politics, Republicans are already likely to pick up two seats, and out of eight toss ups, six are Democratic and two  of those are open seats.  One of those states is the ever coveted Virginia where Obama did well in 2008, but is a toss-up in 2012 (assuming Romney is the Republican nominee). The other, Wisconsin, is looking better for Obama, but the more accurate metric may be Scott Walker’s fate, and he’s currently in a non-red-zone, if not entirely comfortable place. If Walker wins his recall election, it’ll give a boost of morale to Republicans.

None of the above means that Democrats are destined to lose control of the Senate – they will probably lose seats, but a slim majority is not out of the question. Even so, Democrats will not want to do anything that could make a current toss-up seat, especially in a historically economically conservative locale like Virginia, become a likely Republican seat. This is why they will again reject an Obama budget, and probably not vote on one at all, so as to not give their endorsement to a Republican resolution. They will again compromise with Republicans, but like last year, try not to do too much to anger their own base. I therefore foresee many continuing resolutions to come.

Not that Senate Democrats angering their base will matter because the base is also worried about losing seats. They may grumble about “traitors” early in the year, but when it gets down to it, they’ll want to retain control of the Senate, too. So they’ll grudgingly go along with their Senators, for now.

Basically, I expect this year to largely be a repeat of last year, which means lots of headaches overall, but no Obama budget passed. Now maybe we can throw in a good Supreme Court ruling on the mandate?