Newt Gingrich is getting a lot of flack, and rightly so, for saying that Paul Ryan’s Path for Prosperity is too radical in regards to Medicare. He’s walked back from it…sort of…but he may not need to.
I’m just not sure that enough people understand the proposal. That is perhaps why Gingrich feels comfortable saying that it’s radical, because he thinks he’ll have to run amidst a proposal that not many people get yet. Basically, Republicans have a promotion problem. There has not been nearly enough of an campaign to educate voters about it. That’s understandable, since they spent most of early 2011 trying to pass this year’s budget.
Then they went on spring break for two weeks. Since they’ve been back from recess, it seems like the punditsphere been so focused on Donald Trump and the death of Osama bin Laden to care about anything else. As for the House itself, they seem to be working on other areas of the budget right now, so they’re not talking about Medicare reform either. So is it so surprising that someone would try to jump in and take over the issue?
Recently conservatives have been jumping in joy over a poll, which was Democrat-heavy, which seems to support their plan. Err, not so much. Almost every other question on the poll was in favor of Medicare, and even in the question that attempted to give a half-decent explanation of the changes, more of those who originally supported the changes came to oppose them than those who supported the status quo came to oppose the status quo.
It gets worse. A Quinnipiac poll that came out at around the same time reveals that almost 70% of voters oppose changes to Medicare. I thought that spread was a bit insane, so I decided to see what the choice of pollster among conservatives has to say about the issue, and the news isn’t good. A Rasmussen poll from April says that only 26% of likely voters favor the Ryan plan, while a whopping 47% have no opinion, and only 33% of people have been following news about it.
Compare that to a Rasmussen poll from this month about Obamacare, where 55% of likely voters oppose it. Which issue Republicans have spent a lot of time campaigning against? Right, Obamacare!
The lack of knowledge about the Ryan plan is being used by Newt Gingrich, and it could potentially be a winning strategy, if he can convince seniors that government is going to take away their Medicare. I’ve been seeing a lot from the punditsphere tonight about Gingrich “being done.” Not from where I’m sitting, and why? Because a former Speaker of the House is going to tell seniors that only he can protect their retirement.
Fiscal conservatives across the board, from the presidential candidates who are not Newt Gingrich, right down to Paul Ryan himself, need to get out and start educating voters about the Path to Prosperity, or face someone like Gingrich snapping up the nomination. Recent history shows that Republicans can successfully turn public opinion their way, so it can be done, but they need to start now, and not when Gingrich has gained the momentum.


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