2012 May 23 |
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http://www.theatlanticright.com/2010/11/08/even-with-just-the-house-republicans-have-a-winning-hand/
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So where do Republicans stand after the election? From where I’m sitting, in a fairly good place. If they had to win only one chamber, I’d rather them win the House. Obviously, the Senate would have just been the icing on the cake, but being in control of the Senate these days is not all it’s cracked up to be (as I’ll cover in a bit).  Here’s a few reasons why I think the new power structure is good for them:

The Budget

Owning the House will give Republicans the ability to slice and dice the budget. It annoys me a lot that Democrats didn’t even bother to take it up this year. The Republicans will surely not make that mistake next year, if only because they’ll wish to cut a lot out of it. There may be gridlock when it gets to the Senate and/or the President, but at the very least they will look at it, unlike the Democrats.

Bi-partisanship

Although House Republicans have no reason to negotiate with the Democrats, the story is different in the Senate, where the close numbers from each party necessitates that both parties try to work with each other. Or, more likely, that one party works with a few members from the other. Republicans will not control the agenda there, of course, but with Republicans picking up six seats, the Democrats will be forced to take them seriously.

Going further, Republicans will have a easier time introducing legislation that actually has a chance of getting onto the agenda. Harry Reid will still likely be majority leader, but without the backing of the uber-powerful Nancy Pelosi, and the fact that the Senate gives a lot more power to individual members, the narrowed numbers will allow Republicans a greater opportunity to find moderate Democrats to fill out whatever votes they will need to pass their agenda.

This was true with the Democrats, of course, but I believe Republicans will have an easier time of it. This is because not only will it not be an election year, but also because while the House’s Blue Dog coalition was trounced, the Blue Dogs in the Senate are still in office. The election only saw three lose power and all to Republicans. Historically, Republicans have been more proficient as garnering votes than Democrats, so I could easily see them passing some legislation with the help of moderate Democrats.

The Filibuster

As I noted above, the Senate is more individual oriented. The majority party is only as powerful as the minority’s ability to effectively wield a filibuster. In the past two years, the Republicans were very effective in using the filibuster. So, supposing that Democrats in the Senate don’t decide to play nice willingly, and still try to force their agenda through, Republicans always have the filibuster (or threat of it) to look forward to.

The Net Effect

Now, I’m not saying that things look completely rosy for Republicans, or that there will never be gridlock because somehow Republicans now hold all the keys. There will be gridlock, and lots of it. And, of course, they’ll have to contend with the President’s veto pen. Those fights will likely be very nasty.

What I’m saying is that, if they act smartly, Republicans have a chance of getting their agenda through both chambers, even while only holding agenda-setting power in one. Not all the time, but at least some of the time.

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