2012 May 22 |
 |
http://www.theatlanticright.com/2010/03/30/the-purity-of-climate-science/
0
0
  |   43 comments

An article in the New York Times describes the tensions between climate scientists and meteorologists over the issue of anthropogenic global warming (AGW).  

The debate over global warming has created predictable adversaries, pitting environmentalists against industry and coal-state Democrats against coastal liberals.

But it has also created tensions between two groups that might be expected to agree on the issue: climate scientists and meteorologists, especially those who serve as television weather forecasters.

Climatologists, who study weather patterns over time, almost universally endorse the view that the earth is warming and that humans have contributed to climate change. There is less of a consensus among meteorologists, who predict short-term weather patterns.

By NYT standards, the article is fairly balanced, except that it suggests that the divergence between climatologists and meteorologists stems from the inferiority of the latter: that, unlike most climate scientists, meteorologists do not usually have PhDs degrees, and therefore resent their intellectual superiors; and that meteorologists are too focused on short-term weather predictions to appreciate the long-term trends.    

The article also hints that meteorologists share similar characteristics with ”coal state Democrats” and other AGW skeptics who are beholden to ”industry”:

Whatever the reasons, meteorologists are far more likely to question the underlying science of climate change. A study published in the January 2009 newsletter of the American Geophysical Union, the professional association of earth scientists, found that while nearly 90 percent of some 3,000 climatologists who responded agreed that there was evidence of human-driven climate change, 80 percent of all earth scientists and 64 percent of meteorologists agreed with the statement. Only economic geologists who specialized in industrial uses of materials like oil and coal were more skeptical. 

You see how the reporter was using code words there? What in the world does “economic geologists” mean? Are there non-economic geologists? I guess that non-economic geologists and other earth scientists work for free. The NYT article is slyly inferring that meteorology is an industry-oriented concern, like “economic geology,” energy development, or being a coal state Democrat. The implication is that these fields are important but somehow less pure than climate science, which is implied to be removed from economic considerations.  

Of course, scientists and meteorologists who have been skeptical of global warming alarmism have been accused of being on the dole of oil companies, who are the primary funding sources of the “denial industry.” Exxon-Mobil is often cited as one of the major culprits. Never mind that other oil companies are either hedging their bets on “green” alternatives, while others (such as British Petroleum) are poised to make huge profits from rent-seeking “green” scams like cap and trade.  

The irony of the NYT story is that, if anything, climate scientists are much more beholden to the AGW “alarmism industry” than meteorologists would ever be to the “denial industry.” What would happen to the field of climatology – its occupational outlook - if the alarmism industry faded away? Yes, we’d still need climatologists for a variety of other reasons, but what percentage of the total industry funding and employment base would disappear? 10 percent? 20 percent? Many of the laid off climatologists would be qualified to take jobs as meteorologists, but would such positions be beneath them? Besides, the climatologists would have to fight for jobs with experienced meteorologists whose career prospects would not be impacted, one way or the other, by the fate of AGW.

  1. Posted by Jeb42
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #110317
    Jeb42
    You see how the reporter was using code words there? What in the world does “economic geologists” mean?
    From the "economic geology" wiki
    Economic geology is concerned with earth materials that can be used for economic and/or industrial purposes. These materials include precious and base metals, nonmetallic minerals, construction-grade stone, petroleum minerals, coal, and water. The term commonly refers to metallic mineral deposits and mineral resources. The techniques employed by other earth science disciplines (such as geochemistry, mineralogy, geophysics, and structural geology) might all be used to understand, describe, and exploit an ore deposit
    There are several journals and professional organizations dedicated to economic geology including the Society of Economic Geologists. http://www.segweb.org This isn't about coded language, it is about the polling data for a particular set of geologists. They self identify, organize professional organizations, and publish journals on their particular specialty.
    unlike most climate scientists, meteorologists do not usually have PhDs degrees, and therefore resent their intellectual superiors; and that meteorologists are too focused on short-term weather predictions to appreciate the long-term trends
    The first point is undeniably true, the second is opinion and also irrelevant, and the third is likely true in the aggregate.
    Many of the laid off climatologists would be qualified to take jobs as meteorologists
    Not really. They would have the intellectual capacity to do the minimal interpretive work of a meteorologist, but would not likely have much luck in finding work as a meteorologist. Again this is an aggregate judgment there are likely some telegenic climate scientists that would make fine meteorologists. I would guess that the number of meteorologists that could make the transition into climate modeling is vanishingly small.
    Exxon-Mobil is often cited as one of the major culprits. Never mind that other oil companies are either hedging their bets on “green” alternatives, while others (such as British Petroleum) are poised to make huge profits from rent-seeking “green” scams like cap and trade.
    Because they see the writing on the wall and are preparing for the likely future. That does not change the fact that they have been actively working to move public opinion away from the anthropogenic climate change theory. Both were/are in their economic interests. Is there really doubt about any of these points?
    Of course, scientists and meteorologists who have been skeptical of global warming alarmism have been accused of being on the dole of oil companies, who are the primary funding sources of the “denial industry.”
    In many cases this is unfair but, of course the clarion call of those who deny the veracity of AGW is
    climate scientists are much more beholden to the AGW “alarmism industry” than meteorologists would ever be to the “denial industry.”
    along with the various iterations of greedy grant grubbing climate scientists that would willing subvert science in support of their socialist agenda. You have not gone so far, but a read of almost any conservative blog when this topic comes up offers a plethora of variations on this theme. It is a complicated issue and it is further complicated by the fact that the vast majority of those who argue about it are incapable of understanding the research and so are left to accept someone else's interpretation. This is equally true of most of those on both sides of the debate. This involves a political as well as scientific debate and the political/media side of it is nasty and filled with half truths. The politicians and others making the political case are generally woefully ignorant about science and as likely as not to be innumerate and scientists make poor politicians.
    • Posted by Patrick Glenn
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110332
      Patrick Glenn I was not aware of the field of economic geology, so I stand corrected. I still think, though, the reporter was subtly contrasting one side of the debate as economically motivated - coal state Democrats, economic geologists, meteorologists - versus the climatologists, who are inferred to be non-economically motivated. Economic history is replete with examples of firms that were just slightly better positioned than their competitors to take advantage of new market "revolutions," and as a result, they ended up crushing much of their competition. Well, that's fine, it's part of the business cycle, as long as it's the result of innovation and not the government playing favorites. In the case of BP, they might only do 0.2 percent of their current business in alternatives right now (I don't know the real number), but you and I both know they are well situated if the government were to initiate aggressive AGW policies. I say, if their wager on the "green" future succeeds, let it succeed on (relatively) natural market forces, not because of heavy doses of rent seeking (a certain amount is unavoidable).
      • Posted by Jeb42
        | Quote | Trackback | Link #110340
        Jeb42
        I still think, though, the reporter was subtly contrasting one side of the debate as economically motivated - coal state Democrats, economic geologists, meteorologists
        I don't think that there is much doubt that coal state politicians have strong political motivations to question AGW. Economic geologists are a rather broad group, but those that work directly for energy interests have a strong economic incentive to side with their employers. I would think that at least partially explains the difference in their view of AGW vs the views of climate scientists and earth scientists (and for that matter scientists in general). As to meteorologists, I don't know that they have an economic interest one way or another, but I don't think that they are who we should be looking to on matters of climate or much of anything beyond tomorrow's weather. BTW there is still relatively broad agreement among economic geologists and among meteorologists on AGW. but the numbers are not quite so one sided as they are among those who directly study climate. BP, Exxon and others are certainly out to collect their share of any new 'green' rents, but let's not pretend that they are not currently collecting rents with their fossil fuel business. We actively subsidize the fossil fuel industry and the sum is much greater than current or near term 'green' rents.
        • Posted by Patrick Glenn
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110354
          Patrick Glenn Yes, I was saying, isn't it ironic that meteorologists probably have less economic interest in AGW than do climatologists, yet meteorologists - a generally "skeptical" group - get lumped in with the other "interested" and therefore tainted parties. The credentials and motivations don't matter on a scientific level - the data speak for themselves. Yes, relying on expertise is often necessary and beneficial, as most people cannot grasp the finer aspects of the science (including myself) and those who can grasp it, don't have time to sift through mountains of data/trends. At the end of the day, though, science doesn't care what are your credentials. Policymakers should "be looking to" whoever can get the science right and can translate their analysis into sensible policy. Btw, since you are quite knowledgeable about scientic matters: How would you characterize the manner in which a "typical" geophysicist, for example, would regard the scientific vigor of a "typical" climatologist?
          • Posted by Jeb42
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110358
            Jeb42
            meteorologists - a generally "skeptical" group - get lumped in with the other "interested" and therefore tainted parties
            I think they are grouped because of their relative skepticism rather than any other factor. Most of them do not have the appropriate skill set to evaluate the data for themselves.
            The credentials and motivations don't matter on a scientific level - the data speak for themselves.
            They are an indicator as to whether of not the person has the necessary knowledge to evaluate the data.
            How would you characterize the manner in which a "typical" geophysicist, for example, would regard the scientific vigor of a "typical" climatologist?
            Physicists in general tend to view less math intensive fields as less rigorous, but that particular criticism doesn't hold here, so I don't know. A geophysicist should have the necessary mathematical tools to evaluate climate models and many have modeling experience, particularly if they graduated after complex computer models were the norm.
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110362
            Patrick Glenn That's a good point about the value of having a certain skillset to "evaluate the data," keeping in mind that some scientists with certain credentials might still evaluate the data incorrectly, while other non-credentialled persons might be fully capable of evaluating the data properly. Nice job on gracefully sidestepping my trap, er question, about how a physicist would tend view a climatologist. A have a couple of friends with advanced degrees in physics and they looked at climatology as somewhat of a "back up" major, for those who couldn't hack it in physics, but you know, physicists sometimes have a high regard for their own abilities.
    • Posted by Interested
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110335
      Interested
      it are incapable of understanding the research
      If only the research could be trusted.
      • Posted by Jeb42
        | Quote | Trackback | Link #110341
        Jeb42 The NASA research along with the primary data is available for download at the GISS website for free.
        • Posted by Interested
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110346
          Interested The same NASA research that they said was not as good as the falsified research. Where have you been the past 8 months Jeb?
  2. Posted by Evil
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #110318
    Evil Bastardi, Coleman and Watts are not climate scientists. Weathercasters are not scientists. "Meteorologists are not required to take a course in climate change, this is not part of the NOAA/NWS [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service] certification requirements." However, in the pathetic vendetta against the ACC theory, which is a mote in the eye of economic right-wingers, any kind of intellectual meritocracy, fallacy or avoidance of meritocracy is allowed. I fail to see any possibility of coordinating a global conspiracy involving thousands of scientists. I also fail to see how their own economic concerns could somehow be enough to create the correlation between intelligence/studies/awareness/knowledge/authority/credibility/etc. and "belief" in the ACC theory. While we are armchair psychoanalyzing people we have never met, I would like to ask if perhaps these metereologists could be "skeptical" against ACC because, perhaps, they feel inferior to actual scientists, or maybe they project their own incapacity to actually make good predictions on a regular basis onto climate scientists. Then there's the matter of your own, personal reasons to jump on every "skeptic" talking point and rail endlessly against ACC and it's proponents because the ramifications of it go against your loathing of government, collective action and left-wingers. So, Glenn, you are not a "skeptic", and neither are these losers Watts (I could find dozens of links of Watts being debunked and never apologizing or retracting, like a real man would). You are biased. I am a skeptic of ACC. The scientists who propose that ACC is a fact with high confidence are also skeptical towards said theory. Yet, at the end of the day, we think you and all the hallowed, sacrosanct corporations and innocent Western families should *pay more money and taxes* for all emissions, simply because we are not allowed to hurt other people with our emissions, in the same sense that we are not allowed to dump our garbage on our neighbor's lawn. In short, the scientists themselves are already just as skeptical as the mathematicians, physicists, chemists etc. There is very little to suggest that the concern trolling and pedantry of the self-professed skeptics is anything but redundant and superficial. Did you apply your own skeptical faculties on the claims of the skeptics? Did you consider your smears against the climate scientists would not hold up in court or a truly meritocratic tribunal? Did you perhaps question your own reasoning properly? "If the scientists *could* be biased, then they probably are and don't want to admit the matter they are studying is not a high priority." This is the problem with climate "skeptics" - you only employ skepticism to the point where you can write something smarmy (and incredibly generic) about us dogmatic purists. And believe me when I say I am holding back - if I spoke honestly about how I feel about your post and what it says about you and your movement, I would be banned.
    • Posted by Patrick Glenn
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110334
      Patrick Glenn Nothing I said above suggests a "global conspiracy," but yes economic concerns affect researchers in many direct and indirect, conscious and unconscious ways. My point was that climatologists work for living just like meteorologists, coal state Democrats, economic geologists. Their science must rise or fall on its own merits, but we should not assign to them higher motives. The reason I am a "skeptic" is because the AGW proponents have been trying to influence policymakers and I'm highly skpetical of the policies they wish to promote. For example, your insistence that "western families . . . pay more money and taxes" for emissions of an inert, non-toxic gas. If the discussion remained strictly a scientific concern, I'd be happy to take a more neutral tone, but then we're not the ones pressing the issue. Ugh, where did I do any psychoanalyzing? That was the NYT. Where did I smear a climate scientist? I think you're conflating me with all "skeptics." Oh, and if your argument can only be expressed in a way that would get you banned, you don't have much an argument.
      • Posted by Jeb42
        | Quote | Trackback | Link #110342
        Jeb42
        For example, your insistence that "western families . . . pay more money and taxes" for emissions of an inert, non-toxic gas.
        1) It is western industrialized nations that are primarily responsible for the increased levels of atmospheric CO2. If those CO2 levels are causing a global problem then isn't it primarily their responsibility to deal with it? 2) CO2 is not inert, where it so then life as we know it would not be. Among other things photosynthesis would not be possible. Ocean acidification with increased CO2 levels would not be a potential problem. I could go on... 3) As to non-toxic that is situational. O2 can be toxic as can H2O. CO2 is a heat trapping gas and as such has an environmental impact. That is an entirely non-controversial statement and no scientist denies that.
        Their science must rise or fall on its own merits, but we should not assign to them higher motives.
        Can you agree then that it is ridiculous for their motives to be continually questioned by those that have disagreements with the political implications of the science that they do?
        • Posted by Patrick Glenn
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110355
          Patrick Glenn I should have been more careful with my words. I meant CO2 was "inert" in a figurative sense, but obviously if we're having a discussion about science, that's a bad time to be casual with the word. On the other hand, any policymaker who concludes that CO2 should be treated as a pollutant, based on what has been hitherto presented, should be voted out of office ASAP.
          • Posted by Jeb42
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110360
            Jeb42 If CO2 is a primary driver of global climate change (as seems likely) then it is entirely reasonable to categorize it as a pollutant.
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110365
            Patrick Glenn I will grant you the second part of the above proposition. But, as I'm not sold on the first part, I'd prefer to hold off on the second part.
          • Posted by Evil
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110369
            Evil "On the other hand, any policymaker who concludes that CO2 should be treated as a pollutant, based on what has been hitherto presented, should be voted out of office ASAP." Well, it isn't that harmful in itself. it just creates a planetary energy imbalance. Anyone who disputes *that* should be voted out of office. Or, if you ask me, off the planet.
        • Posted by Patrick Glenn
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110356
          Patrick Glenn As for your question about motives - yes and no. The "no" part first. To use a schoolyard excuse: "They started it!" At a certain point, if you're going to level the policy debate field, after 15+ years of very concerted efforts on the part of AGW proponents to delegitimize all "skeptics," those under assault have to respond with some aggression of their own. Not ideal, but perhaps necessary. Very few AGW proponents are willing to concede that the other side's motives are just as noble as are theirs. But, yes, I agree that the motives of AGW proponents should not be seen as conspiratorial or nefarious. The truth is both more banal and more dangerous. Everybody has economic motivations and some people do sloppy work and then try to cover it over, but those tend to be universal impulses. When I refer to AGW as a 'scam," I don't really mean that it's consciously set up as some sort of con game. The AGW crowd believe that they're doing the best thing for the economy, environment, etc. But the results do end up scamming some people to the benefit of others.
          • Posted by Jeb42
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110359
            Jeb42
            "They started it!" At a certain point, if you're going to level the policy debate field...
            Perhaps, but the ugliness is rife through all political debate now and all sides always claim "They started it!" and generally also claim that the other side is worse and refuse to stop because it would be "unilateral disarmament". Given that state of affairs I don't see the situation improving.
            concerted efforts on the part of AGW proponents to delegitimize all "skeptics,"
            Remember also that there has been concerted efforts by several energy interests to delegitimize the science using misinformation. It is in some ways analagous to tobacco companies campaign against the science behind the linkage of lung cancer and emphysema to smoking. The response to this campaign was/is at times overheated and has become a convenient debate tactic for far too many people and is now used with such frequency that it has become all but useless when dealing with its original target. (I guess that could be boiled down to "They started it!") Certainly most of those skeptical about AGW are not in the employ of an interest group and are sincere in their beliefs and the same is true of those on the other side of the debate. Unfortunately it is also true that most on both sides of the debate are woefully ignorant of the science behind their position and routinely make ridiculous claims. (Los Angeles will become another Atlantis, there is a global comspiracy of socialist scientists, etc.)
            Everybody has economic motivations and some people do sloppy work and then try to cover it over, but those tend to be universal impulses.
            Thus the necessity of the scientific method. Thousands of climate scientists and millions of scientists get to look at the publications and the sloppy ones get eviscerated.
            The AGW crowd believe that they're doing the best thing for the economy, environment, etc. But the results do end up scamming some people to the benefit of others.
            1) Scamming requires intent, so even if wrong it would not be properly called a scam. 2) If we are correct in our prediction of likely scenarios we will indeed be doing the best thing for the economy, environment, etc. 3) In either case some will benefit from rents. This is (at least potentially) a huge multinational problem, such problems require large multinational efforts to address, and that inevitably pans out with considerable rent seeking. That is the price you pay for an effort of that magnitude. Unfortunately problems of this sort (some uncertainty, large up front costs, and delayed pain/benefit) are not well addressed by free enterprise solutions. When/if the pain/benefit is imminent free enterprise solutions come into their own, until then...
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110364
            Patrick Glenn A scam usually involves intent, but not necessarily. For example, some real estate development deals start out on the level, then go bad. The developer solicits investors with every intention of completing the project and repaying them, along with any returns on investment, but the maybe the project runs into large, unexpected expenses, and the developer skips town. That's still a scam. You're tobacco lobby example is not a good parallel. The body of literature arguing that cigarettes are bad for one's health dates to the 1870s/80s. The studies suggesting that smoking did not cause cancer were 100 percent industry funded, directed, etc. A better smoking-related example, but still not ideal, would be the studies on sidestream smoke. Certainly, sidestream smoke is bad at certain exposure levels, but how much is dangerous for different risk groups? Recent studies have indicated that sidestream smoke is perhaps generally less dangerous than previous "alarmist" studies, at least for most risk groups (exceptions would be bartenders, etc.). Well, the authors of these recent studies were labelled by the anti-smoking lobby as tools of Big Tobacco, etc.
          • Posted by Jeb42
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110394
            Jeb42 In your real estate example intent was exhibited when the developer decided to skip town to avoid the consequences of the deal going south and that is when it becomes a scam. Before that it was just poor decision making. The tobacco parallel was intended solely as a criticism of the energy industry funded campaign to delegitimize climate science and scientists and to cloud the issue with misinformation. It was not intended as a broader criticism of others who are skeptical of AGW (apologies if it came across that way). It seems to me that most people on both sides of the (political) debate are well meaning, unfortunately most on both sides are also poorly informed.
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110397
            Patrick Glenn I agree that the developer exhibited intent when he skipped town. However, that's fairly typical of well-intentioned deals that end going south. The agents start out with no intention of scamming anyone, make some mistakes, the mistakes then get compounded by additional mistakes, and then finally they do something intentionally wrong when they feel like they're backed against the wall, but they rationalize the whole thing as bad luck, not their faults, etc. At the risk of sounding cynical, it is a minority of agents who make collossal mistakes and then take full responsibility and consequences, without trying to wriggle their ways out. A well-intentioned policy that goes south might follow a similar pattern, although the action is usually stretched over dacdes, with multiple agents succeeding eachother. One generation of policymakers enacts a well-intentioned policy that does more harm the good; the next generation compounds the problems with "fixes" that cause even more harm than good; finally, the next generation after that defaults on the original promises altogether.
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110412
            Patrick Glenn Here's an example of a scam that was intentional from the beginning: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/04/how_q... This particular scam makes the typical real estate scam seem like a minor misdemeanor, and it's brought to you by the same people who would like to shove cap & trade down our throats. It's also a prime example of why people on my side sometimes slip into using hard-edged, partisan language, when we'd rather debate the issues.
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110413
            Patrick Glenn American Thinker blog, "How Quickly Spread the Tea Party Smear," Jack Cashill.
      • Posted by Evil
        | Quote | Trackback | Link #110353
        Evil "Ugh, where did I do any psychoanalyzing?" When you suggested that the possibility of economically motivated bias is more than just that, a possibility. You know nothing about their job market. There are many reasons to distrust everyone, which is why skepticism itself must be applied skeptically. How much extra on the side do some of these meteorologists get for speaking at contrarian conventions? Also, just because some corporations are making money on phoney CSR and "greening" efforts doesn't mean they won't fight tooth and nail to not have to actually take responsibility. Remember the tobacco industry's campaign against the true economic impact of smoking. "Oh, and if your argument can only be expressed in a way that would get you banned, you don't have much an argument." According to the rules on this website, yes. It is perfectly acceptable to be horrendously rude and unpleasant while at the same time being intellectually coherent and expressing extremely intelligent reasoning, but that is another matter since I am neither that rude nor that intelligent. "Their science must rise or fall on its own merits, but we should not assign to them higher motives." No one has to do that in order to see that doubting ACC is more obstinacy at this point than skepticism. "The reason I am a "skeptic" is because the AGW proponents have been trying to influence policymakers and I'm highly skpetical of the policies they wish to promote." So get them in contact with a few economists you know. If the metallurgist is not that good in designing a cruise ship, that doesn't make his structural integrity calculations tainted by association. "For example, your insistence that "western families . . . pay more money and taxes" for emissions of an inert, non-toxic gas." Effects of that gas are hardly in question. Don't be pedantic. You know what an externality is. Basically, we are on a global scale subsidizing ourselves and forcing other countries to a collectivist scheme. Us Westerners get to pretend we are the center of the universe for a little longer and that our ability to consume is like the most beautiful expression of freedom ever, while we avoid responsibility for our actions and get charity from other countries, in a sense. We are all welfare queens unless we start paying the marginal social cost caused by pollution. I think that is the reason we are seeing such concern trolling about climate scientists today - the people who cheered globalization do not want to admit their free-capitalism paradisaical system is at heart a socialist, unfair monstrosity. I can't prove it, but I think it could be so. It's not as if any criticism of the climate scientists' work so far has been sound in an actual sense, so there must be something very odd that motivates the "skeptic" movement.
        • Posted by Patrick Glenn
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110367
          Patrick Glenn I wrote nothing about "bias," only that EVERYONE is economically motivated- which is a fact of life. I plead guilty to writing pointed, even snarky things, but challenge you to find an example of my "rudeness," unless it was return fire. Yes, I know what is an negative externality, I just don't consider CO2 emmissions to be one. Again, if the discussions were merely scientific, I'd happpily leave 'em to the scientists. However, certain people demand that we enact policies that would sginificantly damage our economy. That makes it a political/policy matter. Also, I guess us westerners are not pretending we are the center of the universe, if all the other nations are in reality supporting our lavish lifestyles. But, then, you don't seem to appreciate how nasty, brutish, and short life was before the arrival of capitalism (a true humanitarian gift). Life would be better in the "Third World" if the anti-capitalists hadn't cared so much.
          • Posted by Evil
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110370
            Evil " However, certain people demand that we enact policies that would sginificantly damage our economy." You, too, are demanding we take a huge risk. Your course of action is under no circumstances some kind of safe, comfortable status quo we can rely on, whereas the green movement are boldly leaping far away from something stable which will always work. Al Gore wants us to take a risk. You want us to take a risk. Look at China - they most certainly know that money spent today is money saved tomorrow. Perhaps it is a cultural thing that makes us westerners that more proud, greedy and short-sighted. "But, then, you don't seem to appreciate how nasty, brutish, and short life was before the arrival of capitalism (a true humanitarian gift)." Sure I do. I love buying stuff and having smart, hard-working people jostle for my cash. Of course, I realize that our current modus is now not economically or ethically neutral enough to deserve to be called capitalism, at least on the macro scale. I really like economic liberalism, meritocracy, fair play and sound economic thinking, which is why I loathe our current path and system and think CATO, the Anglican right and all the other anti-green "skeptics" are 100 % hypocritical and represent a complete nadir of western thought, morals and intellectual commitment. present company notwithstanding, I find them a bunch of white, contrarian and self-satisfied hagiographers who don't want to admit that our ironcast, Randian, self-made and ruggedly individualist homestead has a foundation as morally and economically *ugly and unsustainable* as the palaces of soviet Moscow. As long as we force the people of Bangladesh to suffer the consequences of our consumption and production, we've accomplished NOTHING. N-o-t-h-i-n-g.
          • Posted by Patrick Glenn
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110396
            Patrick Glenn I'm all for boldly leaping forward, but let it be a real leap and not a Reggie Bush push. The products of the promised green revolution should actually be revolutionary - true technological breakthroughs that bring higher quality of life, at a lower cost, without relying on generous subsidies, which by itself will generally result in an improved environment, but truly revolutionary "green" technologies would be a nice bonus. I'm also all for the government spending generously on R&D. If we could reform entitlements and stop engaging in heavy doses of social engineering, we could spend more on "green" R&D, but once the products are developed, they have to be able to compete on their own, or else they become net negatives - and inefficient, centralized management of energy is bad for the environment.
          • Posted by Evil
            | Quote | Trackback | Link #110400
            Evil I am aware that subsidies are inefficient, but it is not safe to assume the markets are going to think enough in the long-term to safeguard the rights of the innocent in other countries, who are hurt by our pollution. However, gimmicky and symbolic green-tech/green-corp/green energy projects are not good - they make energy sustainability seem simplistic and self-important, when it really is a scientific, economic and very serious issue.
    • Posted by Interested
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110336
      Interested LMMFAO.
  3. Posted by Evil
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #110320
    Evil Bastardi, Coleman and Watts are not climate scientists. Meteorologists don't have to learn anything about the climate. Also, there's that old "Well of course climate scientists are going to hunger for jobs and funding". Which is a nice kind of smearing - "well, they have motive, which means it is most probable that they cheat." Yeah, try that kind of thing in court. It's funny Glenn, how you turn your nose up to the NYT's insinuation that meteorologists have personal, subjective reasons to be biased against the work of climate scientists, and then YOU go right ahead and make the same kind of petty speculation about what motivates climate scientists! I suggest the following as a not-very-controversial null hypothesis - climate scientists know more about the climate, and if they say emissions are an externality, we should pay for them. Paying for externalities is 100 % pure economic good sense. How you pay is the real issue, not whether we should. I could pick apart more of your post, but I won't bother because I can't be sure whether my comment is posted. Bastardi, Watts and the like have been debunked plenty of times and shown themselves to be of less intellectual merit than the scientists they pedantically criticize. In my own experience, there are no climate "skeptics". to be skeptical, you can't use your skepticism *partially*. Watts is no skeptic. Neither, apparently is Glenn.
  4. Pingback | Link #110330
    Tweets that mention PoliGazette » The Purity of Climate Science -- Topsy.com [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by EarthAdapt. EarthAdapt said: #Green #Jobs : The Purity of Climate Science - PoliGazette (blog) http://bit.ly/9oSrsv ; ) EarthAdapt.com [...]
  5. Pingback | Link #110352
    Tweets that mention PoliGazette » The Purity of Climate Science -- Topsy.com [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by WeThePeopleUSA, Biggus Swordus and Biggus Swordus, 0-i biz. 0-i biz said: The Purity of Climate Science http://bit.ly/bsaknv [...]
  6. Posted by Lee Thomas
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #110357
    Lee Thomas Where I believe the skeptics do themselves a disservice is in trying to deny or at least cast doubt upon the validity that the earth is warming. The facts are that it is warming and has been warming since the end of the last glacier age. To deny that their is a rise in Co2 since preindustrial times is also a silly debate to have. Sensitive scientific instruments can determine that the rise of co2 is happening. Core samples give us an incisive insight into what the earth was like going backwards for at least 800,000 years to date. The question in everyones mind should be just what exactly will be accomplished if we are to reduce our carbon footprint by 18 percent or 24 percent or 40 percent? Will it matter?
  7. Posted by Brian
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #110366
    Brian It isn't the only conflict among professionals, astronomers have been at odds with climatologists also .. they're the ones who felt the sun spot issue was being ignored. I had an astronomy professor in the 90s, before this whole global warming debate blew up, who pointed out the relation between sunspots and warming. Conservatives just picked up it from them.
    • Posted by Evil
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110368
      Evil http://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspo... The sun is not a factor. Your astronomy professor was mistaken.
      • Posted by Brian
        | Quote | Trackback | Link #110371
        Brian I can make up my own mind, also, Evil. The argument is that the latter part of that graph (1960 onward) where you see a rise while the solar activity falls a bit, that its because of human-caused factors. But the quotes on that page agree that the sun is a factor in warming. Haigh 2003 says "Observational data suggest that the Sun has influenced temperatures on decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales, but radiative forcing considerations and the results of energy-balance models and general circulation models suggest that the warming during the latter part of the 20th century cannot be ascribed entirely to solar effects." Solanki 2003 concludes "the Sun has contributed less than 30% of the global warming since 1970". Lean 1999 concludes "it is unlikely that Sun–climate relationships can account for much of the warming since 1970". The concern echoed by those quotes is that the most recent warming isn't entirely accountable for by solar activity. As it says ''decadal, centennial and millennial time-scales", -- that page is only showing you a graph from 1880 to the present on purpose. If you look at longer term graphs, the sun's influence is more obvious-- From the 1600s to present: http://www.john-daly.com/press/sunspots.jpg http://krusekronicle.typepad.com/kruse_kronicle/i... Even from 1850 to present, though this graph its more evident the recent post-60s rise we're talking about: http://my.net-link.net/~malexan/Temp-Sunspot.gif So the debate is still, how much of this post-60s rise in temperature is due to human caused factors. The sunspot cycle and temperature don't always match exactly, so is it a statistical anomaly? Or, maybe it is true, and humans have contributed to warming, but by what percent. Is it really 70% and the sun 30% as that one study asserts? There's a great deal of evidence now that although we've been in a natural warming trend overall, that the amount of warming in the lower portion of the atmosphere is unnatural and accounts for the outstanding warming post-60s. But the point is that solar influence was understudied and largely ignored by climatologists until conservatives pointed it out.
        • Posted by Jeb42
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110392
          Jeb42
          But the point is that solar influence was understudied and largely ignored by climatologists until conservatives pointed it out.
          Not so. Solar forcings were a part of the earliest climate models. It is true that some conservatives and AGW skeptics latched on to a paper showing a correlation between solar activity and temperatures on earth (at least up until the latter half of the last century) several years ago.
          The argument is that the latter part of that graph (1960 onward) where you see a rise while the solar activity falls a bit, that its because of human-caused factors.
          A point that too few who make the solar forcing argument are willing to acknowledge.
      • Posted by Jeb42
        | Quote | Trackback | Link #110393
        Jeb42 The sun is certainly a factor. I don't have the citation to hand but some Danish(?) scientists in the 90s published an article showing a correlation between sunspot activity and global temperatures in the historical climate record. Within several months of it being published it was noted that the had ended and that sunspot activity was no longer tracking with sunspot activity.
        • Posted by Brian
          | Quote | Trackback | Link #110409
          Brian Yea, the Danish scientist is Henrik Svensmark. But the models used in earlier IPCC reports didn't take in account sunspot activity, because the scientists involved thought the variations in solar irradiance were too weak force to affect the climate. They dismissed that sunspots influenced the climate almost entirely. It was only later IPCC reports that looked seriously at it. And, like I said, the rise in global mean temperature post 60s or post 70s doesn't necessarily say anything by itself. What skeptics (and proponents alike) should look at is the report done by Bush's climate change commission, organized to settle some of the controversies in the debate. The conclusion was that there was a significant amount of warming in the lower atmosphere specifically, which could only be attributed to man-made causes. So, the political debate over this helps us come to some consensus about the facts.
    • Posted by globalscams
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110390
      globalscams Brian you might find this interesting. http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/...
  8. Posted by Evil
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #110373
    Evil "But the quotes on that page agree that the sun is a factor in warming. " Yes. And right now the sun is not very active. Yet we are warming. Repeat after me, and don't try to get all "LEFTIST INDOCTRINATION" on me, because I tell you the truth: No matter what you "make up my own mind"-fellows come dragging with, you are incapable of explaining our energy imbalance unless you factor in CO2 in the models. It's not the sun's fault. It's not El Nino's fault. It's our fault. Anthropogenic CO2 is the only factor that explains the energy imbalance. It's like with gravity - we only observe what is happening and understand that *something* has not been made into a factor yet. "But the point is that solar influence was understudied and largely ignored by climatologists until conservatives pointed it out." Maybe.
    • Posted by Brian
      | Quote | Trackback | Link #110377
      Brian Yes, the sun isn't active and temperature is still increasing. But, even assuming there wasn't human-caused warming, unless the graphs were to match each other exactly year after year, thats going to happen from time to time. You can't always judge an aberration from the trend by short term data. But I agree with you that humans cause warming, I'm not arguing about that. There are other indicators besides global mean temperatures. What I'm interested in discussing is the degree of influence, and whether the Earth will really heat up 6 degrees in a century like suggested in the high-end of the IPCC estimates. Understanding solar forcing, how temperature influences carbon in the atmosphere, and all the other factors skeptics are bringing up, are important in determining that.
  9. Posted by finance_future
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #112214
    finance_future Our planet "pollutes" itself with vast quantities of chemical emissions with every volcanic event and forest fire. Volcanic activity also melts icecaps as is the case in Greenland at this time. Human pollution is such a small contribution that it is insignificant. Al Gore knows that he cannot get much money by campaigning for the "Give Me Your Money" Campaign, yet he is smart enough to know that he is very powerful and will recieve billions campaigning for the"Save the World" Campaign.