Western powers all appeared to be on the same page.
Behind their show of unity about Iran’s clandestine efforts to manufacture nuclear fuel, however, is a continuing debate among American, European and Israeli spies about a separate component of Iran’s nuclear program: its clandestine efforts to design a nuclear warhead.
The Israelis, who have delivered veiled threats of a military strike, say they believe that Iran has restarted these “weaponization” efforts, which would mark a final step in building a nuclear weapon. The Germans say they believe that the weapons work was never halted. The French have strongly suggested that independent international inspectors have more information about the weapons work than they have made public.
Meanwhile, in closed-door discussions, American spy agencies have stood firm in their conclusion that while Iran may ultimately want a bomb, the country halted work on weapons design in 2003 and probably has not restarted that effort — a judgment first made public in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate.
As MSNBC points out, the debate “is a mirror image of the intelligence dispute on the eve of the Iraq war.” The only difference being that this time “United States spy agencies are delivering more cautious assessments about Iran’s clandestine programs than their Western European counterparts.”
Strange as it may sound to American readers, I believe Israel and European spy agencies should be taken more serious than their American colleagues. The reason? The Iraq War destroyed the credibility of the CIA. It’s likely that the American agency became inordinately cautious as a result of that intelligence disaster.
European and Israeli agencies aren’t handicapped by the Iraq War, they can review the available evidence more objectively than their American counterparts.
When it comes to Iran I’m definitely listening to Europeans and Israelis.
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