When Senator Arlen Specter defected to the Democratic Party last week, he explained he did so because internal polling showed he would lose the GOP’s primary election to Congressman Pat Toomey, who challenged the fiscally liberal 79-year old for his seat.

The most recent polls among Republican voters had Specter trailing by 21%. Indeed, a significant gap.

So Specter betrayed those who voted for him, and quickly ran to the Democratic Party which was so successful last year. He hoped that especially Obama’s popularity and the GOP’s general unpopularity would help him defeat Toomey in the general election believing that ‘a conservative Republican cannot win in Pennsylvania.’

A recent poll shows that Specter may be wrong: if elections were held today, he would defeat Toomey by a mere 6%. Keep in mind that incumbents should have a double digit lead. Especially if ‘no conservative’ can win one of Pennsylvania’s Senate seats, as the senator himself has said on numerous occasions.

The poll, then, should encourage Toomey and his supporters, and worry Specter and his allies. Normally, Toomey should have no chance whatsoever, especially not considering Pennsylvania’s less than stellar conservative record.

Yet, Specter is truly threatened by the former congressman.

Why? Well, I think that many voters – not just Republicans – lost all the respect they once had for Specter when he voted for Obama’s gigantic ‘stimulus plan’ which does nothing to stimulate the economy. Furthermore, it is rather obvious that he switched to the Democratic Party because he believes he is entitled to his seat – Americans tend to dislike any sense of entitlement, especially from their elected officials.

Not only did the pollster ask voters who they would support if Specter ran against Toomey, but also if the Republican Party nominated former Governor Tom Ridge. The result? Ridge by one.

The exact numbers:

In an automated poll of 1,019 households of registered voters taken at the end of last week, announced PBC President and CEO David W. Patti, “PEG PAC found that if the election for US Senate were held today, Tom Ridge could defeat Arlen Specter by a margin of 39 percent to 38 percent. The poll also shows Specter would defeat Pat Toomey by a margin of 42 percent to 36 percent.” The number of undecided voters in the survey is over 20 percent cautioned Patti, and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percent, so the association leader said the results are not conclusive.

James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling said the survey means, “Arlen Specter – not surprisingly – is a strong candidate despite the party switch. He is not, however, invincible. A right-of-center Republican who is well liked in Southeastern Pennsylvania – Tom Ridge or someone very much like him – could win.”

That is exactly it. If Republicans succeed in showing Pennsylvanians who Specter the opportunist is, and how the voted for the most expensive budget in history even though it will do little to nothing to help struggling Pennsylvanians, he can be beaten.