The Associated Press reports:

Battle-weary residents welcomed a pro-Taliban cleric dispatched by the government Tuesday to convince militants in the former tourist haven of Swat to stop fighting in exchange for the imposition of Islamic law and suspension of military offensives there.

Sufi Muhammad arrived in a caravan of some 300 vehicles in Swat Valley‘s main city of Mingora a day after he struck the truce, which a U.S. defense official called “negative” and critics said represented a surrender to extremists fanning out from nearby strongholds close to the Afghan border.

“We will soon open dialogue with Taliban. We will ask them to lay down their weapons. We are hopeful that they will not let us down,” Muhammad told reporters. “We will stay here in the valley until peace is restored.”

As some wondered in private conversations with me, one has to wonder whether the deal between Islamists and the Pakistani government doesn’t prove President Zardari and others to be liars. After all, they said for years that the Taliban and others posed a serious threat to the country as a whole. If this is true, how could Islamabad agree to impose Sharia and to let the Taliban and other extremists govern the country’s tribal areas? It’s clearly contradictory: if the Taliban are indeed so dangerous, agreeing to any kind of deal with them, especially one giving them as much power and influence as the one currently on the table, is ludicrous.

The above means that Islamabad doesn’t truly believe that the Taliban pose such a tremendous threat or, and this is a serious option as well, it may simply be prove that Zardari et alia believe they can’t beat Islamists militarily. They may hope that the Taliban will stop asking for more once they take over the tribal regions officially and are allowed to govern it as they see fit.

In a way, Pakistan is doing what I advised it to do months ago; set out its own course, ignore the West and act in its own interests. However, one has to wonder whether officially giving up the tribal regions (it was never in the government’s control, but it at least said it should be) is indeed in Pakistan’s own interest. Islamists have said for decades they want to take over control of Pakistan as a whole. The tribal region could very well be a start; it’s difficult to imagine they’ll settle for this and nothing more.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Pakistani people at large will react to the deal. Will they consider it a victory for the Taliban (which it is) and will they be attracted to this extremist group, or will they continue to favor a more secular government?

An Islamist takeover of the country as a whole would be bad for Pakistan, the region, and the world; Pakistan is, lest we forget, a nuclear power.

The Taliban and other extremists in the tribal region now have several choices. They can live as they want to live, they can govern the region as they governed Afghanistan; they can try to make a comeback in Afghanistan as well by crossing the border illegally, carrying out attacks and then quickly running back to Pakistan, and they can (also) focus on Pakistan itself by trying to take over other regions of the country.