Secular Turks should pay attention to what their own prime minister says about the crisis in the Middle East. Like most Turks, Recep Tayyip Erdogan opposes the amount of force used by Israel against Hamas, resulting in many innocent deaths. As a result, secular Turks tend to ignore most objective remarks made by Erdogan.

This is a major mistake: one often shows one’s true colors in a crisis, and that is exactly what Erdogan just did.

When speaking at a municipality, Erdogan made a statement one would expect from an Imam, not from a secular, Kemalist leader of the most powerful country in this part of the world. Israel is “perpetrating inhuman actions which would bring it to self-destruction,” Erdogan said. “Allah will sooner or later punish those who transgress the rights of innocents.”

Israelis rather quickly responded with outrage to Erdogan’s remark, making clear that allies do not speak about each other in such an aggressive (and religious) manner. Israel’s main fear is that it will be destroyed, it is even the goal of organizations like Hamas to destroy the Jewish nation-state, as it is of Iran. Predicting Israel’s downfall is a great way to anger Israelis who find themselves surrounded by enemy forces.

Although Jerusalem was shocked by Erdogan’s comments, Israeli officials say they do not want to jump to conclusions (about what the remarks mean for the strategic alliance between Turkey and Israel). They first want the IDF to end operation Cast Lead in Gaza after which they will review the damage caused to the relationship.

Erdogan’s comments can be explained in two ways, which are not mutual exclusive.

1. Municipality elections are coming up in Turkey. Erdogan’s party the AK Parti fell in the polls in early 2008 due to corruption scandals, which cost the party, ironically, among religious conservatives. It is likely that Erdogan spoke out in such strong words against the Israeli military operation to woo these voters once again.

2. Secondly, one often shows one’s true colors in times of crisis especially if one is highly emotional (as Erdogan is). Erdogan was once a strict Islamist who wanted to reform the country, break with the secularism imposed on it by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and, generally, bring Islam back into politics and the public square. In order to win national elections, however, he had to tone his rhetoric down a bit and convince voters that he was a changed man: he had become a moderate, or so he said, much like the Christian Democrats in Germany and the Netherlands. 

That pose was just that: a pose. The crisis caused Erdogan, this explanation goes, to lose his calm demeanor and to drop the mask of moderation he wore for several years. It showed him to be what he is and has always been: a convinced Islamist who sees the world, including politics, in Islamist not secular terms. 

To me, both explanations are probably correct. I have never believed that Erdogan changed as he said he did: according to himself, he changed his views in just one or two years even though he was an adult who was convinced of the truth of Islamism for all his life. On the other hand, Erdogan is also a smart politician who knows when to use Islam or Islamism for electoral gains. Playing to the base, then, is certainly worthwhile for him when elections are near. Like all savvy politicians, Erdogan knows when to use the emotions felt by his public for electoral gains: especially in municipal elections, the art of telling voters what they want to hear is crucial.

Secular Turks, most of whom oppose Israel’s offensive as well – not because they are pro-Hamas but because they believe that Israel’s offensive is killing too many innocent civilians (especially children) – would be wise to watch Erdogan closer than ever before. As said, a man often shows his true face during times of crisis. Something tells me that this is exactly what Erdogan just did. Turkey can play a major role in the region by being who it was for the last 85 years; a majority-Muslim but secular and modern democracy, not by adopting the ways and politics of many Middle Eastern countries.