In his latest column for the New York Times, hyperpositive Bill Kristol argues that Sen. John McCain could very well win tomorrow. This while McCain is trailing in just about every single important poll in every single important state.

Although Kristol’s column may encourage some McCain supporters to stay home Tuesday to go vote nonetheless, I agree with Robert S. ‘the other’ McCain that he and people like Kristol are unlikely to help their own party and / or ideology and are living in a fantasy world.

Rationally, one will have to assume that Obama wins, unless God would suddenly intervene. In other words: Obama’s going to win this thing. If for nothing else, than because the numbers just don’t add up for John McCain. It does not take a genius to figure that one out.

The only question is whether Obama will win in a landslide or not. That is the question, and it should matter. If he wins in a massive landslide he and his fellow liberal democrats will claim to have a mandate, and they will pursue the most liberal policies one can imagine in the coming two to four years.

Blue Dog Democrats will give in, out of fear of being ‘left out’ later.

If, however, Obama will win by a reasonably small margin – with less than 50% of the popular vote and less than 300 electoral votes – Blue Dog Democrats may be willing and able to resist their more liberal colleagues. Obama, Pelosi, Frank and Reid will know that alienating Blue Dog Democrats means alienating a large and above all important part of the electorate, which will come back to punish them only a few years later.

So, your vote does matter. The outcome of the election matters. But kidding yourself by believing that John McCain could win tomorrow is useless and counterproductive. If the Republican Party and the American conservative movement want to recover and reinvent themselves, as they have to if they want to be able to compete in the coming years, they should be realistic.