While the shouting and screaming of hostilities and pejoratives has 12 days left to run its course, it appears from the polls that the 2008 elections are winding down to a Democratic landslide. The RealClearPolitics poll-averaging of state-by-state races shows that the only way McCain could win would be to pull a rabbit out of the hat not only in all of the states currently listed as toss-ups, but also in at least two states listed as currently favoring Obama. Even the flirtatous fling with old-school racism that is the hoped-for “Bradley effect” among some (much smaller than reported in the anti-Republican media) segments of the Republican base is probably insufficient to rescue McCain’s Republican version of the inept 2004 Kerry campaign.
In USA Today‘s Op-Ed section, Chuck Raasch sees echos of 1992, when a Republican meltdown led to a phoenix-like rebirth in 1994, after Democrats in the White House and Congress overreached in their haste to enact what they felt was a mandate for political transformation. The question for 2008, however, is whether enough remains of a coherent Republican majority to form the basis for such a resurgence?
Prospects for a quick Republican rebirth are slim. The problems with the Republican Party today run deeper than in 1992, when the Republican coalition was merely briefly demoralized rather than openly fractured. By 2008, classic conservatives of the William F. Buckley bent are increasingly weary of the open anti-intellectualism of the talk radio base, foreign policy realists are frustrated with the aggressive and militarized remake of Wilsonian liberalism that has been misnamed “neoconservatism”, and pro-business fiscal conservatives are sick and tired of outrageous growth in discretionary spending under Republican leadership. In 1992, Republicans enjoyed the luxury of having been out of control in the legislature for over four decades. In 2008, the Republican record of poor performance is recent and relevant.
Republican rebirth is also likely to be inhibited by intensified institutional barriers. In 1992, Republicans were just beginning to gain dominance in the relatively new medium of talk radio. In 2008, Democrats are threatening outright repression in the area of free speech, using tools like the Fairness Doctrine, campus speech codes, and even the power of the Attorney General’s office in the state of Missouri to systematically eliminate outlets for the re-emergence of a Republican political coalition that could challenge their new hegemony. The willing and even eager complicity of a strongly left-leaning television media establishment makes it almost impossible for any Republican message to even be heard before being distorted and misrepresented in ways that make it very easy for Democrats to win the debate. From its redoubt on unregulated cable, only FoxNews holds a position that is difficult to assail in opposition to the media bias trend, but even FoxNews is under relentless attack by Democratic partisans determined to eliminate even that last vestige of opposition, and it is unlikely that FoxNews will receive much access to the centers of power in a Democratic hegemony.
The internet environment is similarly dismal. The blogosphere is dominated not only by Democratic partisans, but by the most vicious and relentless among them. Using the Memeorandum color widget, it is possible to see visually the huge numerical advantage that the left enjoys on the blogosphere. Even “The Moderate Voice” is dark blue these days. The problem is exacerbated by the aggressiveness and intolerance of the left-leaning “netroots”. The leftist blogosphere uses its position of advantage not to push the idea that they are right, so much, but that anyone who disagrees with them is actively evil, if not downright inhuman. The road from such intolerance to outright suppression of dissent is short and well-travelled. If a Republican resurgence were to begin among the netroots, it would require the establishment and promotion of a much larger pro-Republican infrastructure that would take time.
To partisan Democrats, much of this report of hegemony is happy news (even as they avert their eyes from some of its more dictatorial self-reinforcement mechanisms). The”long march through the institutions” begun in the 1960s may finally be reaching its zenith, culminating in control across the board and the long-awaited opportunity to definitively punish its enemies. The problem is that unchecked single-party rule has a distinct historical tendency to begin consuming its own. After the Republicans are crushed, who’s next? In the increasingly intolerant and purist atmosphere of party politics, what acts of dissent will result in expulsion from the dominant partisan elite? Once there is no risk of losing power, the tarring and feathering of Joe Lieberman may be merely the first of a long series of ideological purges towards the goal of a more pure and purist Democratic Party.
Of course, this is a counsel of my fears and the result could be much more benign. It may be that Democrats will rediscover their genuinely liberal roots, value tolerance and diversity as more than just mere buzzwords, and refrain from abusing their power in political institutions the way that many of them have in academic institutions. But the vitriol and interolance that daily spews forth from frighteningly many of the Democratic partisans in the blogosphere and media does not give easy cause for hope.
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