The German newspaper the SPIEGEL says: quite possibly so. ‘Worryingly for Brussels it is the ‘No’ campaign that is steadily gaining support, as it plays on fears relating to neutrality, taxation and abortion.’

The future of the European Union now hangs on how the voters in this small country on the far western edge of Europe vote on June 12. And with less than two weeks to go to polling day, the referendum debate has been hijacked by issues that have little to do with the Lisbon Treaty. While many have accused the campaign against the treaty of being aggressive, populist and misleading, the reality is that it has also been pretty successful.

The latest opinion poll has the ‘Yes’ camp inching ahead, but only a bit. A poll published in Ireland’s Sunday Business Post showed that 41 percent were now planning to vote for the treaty, up 3 points from the previous poll. However, the ‘No’ side had seen a bigger increase, jumping 5 percent to 33 percent. With a full quarter of the electorate undecided, the spectre of a repeat of France and the Netherlands’ rejection of the European Constitution in 2005 is looming.

In the end the Lisbon Treaty (more…), which replaced that constitution and which is designed to make the workings of the EU more efficient and coherent, could fall victim to the prevailing economic uncertainty that has now begun to touch Ireland.

Ireland, the only country that is legally required to hold a referendum on the treaty has long been regarded as one of the main beneficiaries of EU membership. For years hand outs from Brussels helped Ireland build up its infrastructure. This combined with high investment in education and Ireland’s attractiveness to American companies as a low-tax, English-speaking base paved the way for the economic boom that latest from the mid-1990s until recently.

But the checks are no longer coming from Europe and Ireland’s love affair with the EU may have waned. After all this is the country that rejected the Nice Treaty, the agreement that essentially paved the way for enlargement back in 2001. The referendum had to be held a second time before the treaty passed. “That showed a lack of respect for the will of the people,” says Peadar Ó Broin of the Dublin based Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), a think tank. It seemed to many a “cynical rejection of democracy.”

This time around many issues are muddying the waters. From Ireland’s political neutrality, to its ban on abortion, to its low corporate tax rates, the ‘No’ campaign seems to have successfully focused on what Ireland might lose, while the pro-Europe campaign has found it more difficult to argue what is specifically to be gained from the treaty.

Ah, the old ‘if you give me free money, I like you, if you don’t, I don’t.’

It’s fascinating to see that whenever Europeans have the opportunity to vote, the results are close. All too often, in fact, the ‘no’ camp wins.

Europeans are, I think, generally quite small-minded and we tend to dislike our fellow Europeans, albeit from different countries. For centuries, European nations went at war with each other. For centuries the peoples hated or at least disliked each other. In that respect, the European Union project is fantastically ambitious; it aims at breaking with centuries-old feelings of animosity, hatred, arrogance, revenge and self-pity.