Jim Geraghty notices that we’ve got some strange polls coming out of Florida: the last polls concludes that Mitt Romney is in the lead in Florida, and by some 5% at that. That’s good news for Romney, but there are more polls out and they’re all saying different things.
Jim writes:
Insider Advantage puts Huckabee at 13 percent, quite a ways behind Giuliani at 21 percent. Research 2000 puts Huckabee at 17 percent, but has McCain leading at 26 percent.
Survey USA puts McCain and Giuliani at 25 and 23 percent, respectively, with Romney and Huckabee tied with 18 percent.
Strategic Vision has McCain up considerably, with 27 percent, and Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney trailing with 20, 18 and 17 percents respectively.
So we can draw from this that McCain is probably up a bit, Giuliani’s a bit behind him, and Romney and Huckabee are probably a bit further behind that.
But the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, tells an entirely different story: it has Romney in the lead with 25%, followed by McCain with 20% and Giuliani with 19%.
This means that last Saturday and Tuesday were great days for Romney: “Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida,” Rasmussen recalls.
I think that Rasmussen’s poll could very well correct, but we have to keep in mind that it’s strictly talking about the situation now, not the results in a week time or so. The reason I say they’re probably quite good is this:
In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.
Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.
Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.
That makes sense. It’s that simple.
It would be interesting to see what the polls say two weeks from now, however: when the media have finally come to the conclusion that it’s either McCain or Romney who’ll win the nomination. That and when the media will have repeated time and again that McCain is the frontrunner after his win in South Carolina.
Two days can make a big difference, that’s for sure.
But the polls, every single one of them, are bad news for Giuliani: he has to win in Florida, but the polls show that he has to fight hard for it and that he’s trailing Romney among conservatives and McCain among moderates. He has to, it seems to me, win at least one of those voting blocs.
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