2012 May 18 |
 |
http://www.theatlanticright.com/2007/08/29/reform-in-pakistan/
0
0
  |   4 comments

CNN  is reporting that Pakistani President/military dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf has agreed to step down as head of the country’s military, in an apparent concession made in negotiations with opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. 

The announcement isn’t official, but Bhutto believes it could be a step in the right direction for a more “democratic” Pakistan:

“This is no longer an issue in the negotiations, because General Musharraf recognizes that it is very difficult to move to a transition towards democracy when there’s a chief of army staff ruling the country,” Bhutto told CNN.

“I think he wants to make the right decision, so I expect he’s going to take the uniform off.”

Pakistani cabinet minister Sheikh Rashid confirmed that Musharraf has agreed to step down as army chief.

But it is up to Musharraf to announce his decision, Bhutto said, adding that the issue of his role as army chief is “no longer a hurdle in the negotiations that the opposition and I have been having with him.”

“Earlier we had left it to the courts to decide this issue,” she said, referring to Musharraf’s army chief position. “But now we have bilaterally decided that this issue will be resolved.”

Bhutto has previously said she is considering returning as Pakistan’s prime minister under Musharraf’s government if he steps down as head of Pakistan’s military.

She said negotiations between her opposition party and Musharraf involve appointing a caretaker government, holding fair elections and returning to parliament powers that were removed after the 1999 coup in which Musharraf seized power.

Bhutto was generally known to be an advocate for women’s rights during her tenure as Pakistani PM, however this raises an interesting dilemma for American strategic interests.  If there is anything to this gesture (and we don’t know that for sure yet), might it lead to a more democratic, albeit more Islamic regime in Pakistan? 

Does this put the Bush Administration in a tough spot?  A more “democratic” Pakistan, as we have learned in the case of Turkey, might not mean a more tolerant Pakistan.  Is this yet another instance where America must favor dictatorship over democratization?

UPDATE:

Cernig’s take on it:

Musharaff hasn’t said anything public as yet, and even if it’s true it remains to be seen what the army will say, but this is very encouraging news for Pakistani democracy. Here in the US, the neocons will either hate it or will try to spin it as being their idea and Bush’s plan all along (it wasn’t).

Hmm…but isn’t a muslim regime with access to nuclear weapons a potential problem for American interests?  How about Indian interests? 

Musharaff essentially ran a secular military government.  We’ve seen what Islamic democracy has meant for the Gaza Strip, Iraq, Iran and even Turkey.  Talk about voting against your own interests, the poor south has nothing on this. 

What if a (smart) Pakistani muslim were to run on economic populism and Islamic government in the “new” Pakistan, similar to the campaign of Ahmadenijad? 

  1. Posted by marc
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #7868
    marc Sounds like it will lead to blood in the streets as much or more than an increase in democratic rights. Any opinion on that?
  2. Posted by Cernig
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #7865
    Cernig Hi Kevin, My reading of the Indian view is that they believe the Islamist current to be too weak to gain a majority and that if the secular militarists (Musharaff, the army's elite) and the secular democratists (Bhutto, the civil elite) can find a reconcilliation then it will actually reduce the danger of an Islamist victory. Then again, certain Pakistani opposition types see it as a possibly fatal mistake for Bhutto, marking her as an opportunist and thus pushing people away from her. But they would gain from seeing Bhutto lose ground, so their judgement is questionable. Although I've been very critical of Musharaff's regime and its two-faced stance in the war on terror over the 30+ posts I've written this year alone on pakistan, on balance I'm inclined towards the view of the Indian counter-terrorism specialist cited in the first link above. The most likely scenario now is: "The Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam) created by Musharraf and its allies, who are loyal to him, do badly in the elections due later this year or even lose them. A coalition consisting of Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, and the religious political parties is voted to power. Musharraf will have only two options: Either prove his democratic credentials by handing over power to them or refuse to do so or avoid doing so. If he adopts the first option, the world may not have much to worry about. If he adopts the second option, there could be a mass uprising as happened in East Pakistan in 1971 when the Army refused to honour the election verdict. There would be considerable instability of which the beneficaries could be the fundamentalists and the jihadis." It's all down to what Mushie does next, but hanging up the uniform is a very positive step, if true. (As I said in the post you linked, Musharaff hasn't confirmed he will do so yet.) Regards, C
  3. Posted by Kevin
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #7866
    Kevin Again, would you rather take your chances on a possible uprising, or simply giving elected power to irresponsible religious parties? I'm not so concerned about their abilities now...I trsut that Bhutto can put together a pretty sensible coalition, despite her opportunism. I'm talking more down the road--once the infrastructure is in place for muslim democracy, might we see a radicalized Pakistan? Jamaat-i-Islami, for example, is well organized by religious party standards and are better at consensus building than similar parties in other nations. How long until they can get enough like-minded individuals togehter? That would be a concern for America, to me.
  4. Posted by Michael van der Galiën
    | Quote | Trackback | Link #7867
    Michael van der Galiën I agree with you Kevin. Some people seem to think that Democracy will, in the end, bring peace and prosperity for all. Sadly it doesn't work like that. Having true Democracy in Pakistan right now - without an army ala Turkey to do something about Islamists and to enforce the secular nature of the state - could result in big, big problems. Pakistan is a nuclear country. One should always keep this in mind.